Overview

• Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Chief Secretary Darren Jones declined to rule out further tax rises ahead of the 26 November Budget, saying decisions will follow new forecasts.
• Extending the freeze on income tax thresholds is under consideration, with Quilter estimating an average earner could pay over £200 more a year by 2029–30 if it continues.
• Treasury officials are reported to be examining ways to broaden the VAT base, including applying VAT to some currently exempt services and lowering the VAT registration threshold for small firms.
• Health Secretary Wes Streeting ruled out VAT on private healthcare, stating the government will not do it despite earlier reports of internal exploration.
• Independent analyses point to a £30–£50bn fiscal gap and the OBR is expected to update productivity forecasts this week, factors likely to determine the scale and mix of Budget measures.