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Strategy Touts Debt Coverage as Index Exclusion Risks Mount

The company asserts its 649,870‑BTC trove still outweighs its debts across stress cases.

Overview

  • Strategy said its “BTC Rating” shows 5.9× coverage of $8.214 billion in convertible notes at $74,000 BTC and 2.0× coverage if BTC falls to $25,000.
  • Including preferred shares, the firm put total obligations at about $15.993 billion, while outside analysts flagged roughly $700 million in annual preferred dividends against about $54 million in cash.
  • The stock is down roughly 60% over the past year, and after adding 8,178 BTC on Nov. 17 the company paused its usual weekly purchases.
  • MSCI’s January 2026 review could lead to exclusion that JPMorgan estimates might force up to $8.8 billion in index-linked unwinds, and S&P 500 inclusion remains out of reach due to earnings volatility.
  • Arkham reported large transfers to Fidelity Digital Assets custody in recent months, a shift that strengthens institutional setup but reduces on‑chain visibility of holdings.