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Strategy Touts Bitcoin Buffer as Equity Premium Vanishes and S&P 500 Removal Lands

The company says its Bitcoin reserves provide ample coverage of its obligations, a claim now tested by thin cash, rising preferred costs, and looming index rules that could spur forced selling.

Overview

  • Strategy reports a “BTC Rating” showing 5.9x coverage of its $8.214 billion in convertible notes at $74,000 BTC and 2.0x coverage at $25,000, with total obligations of about $15.993 billion.
  • The stock’s market-to-net-asset value compressed to near or below 1x, erasing the issuance premium that previously made new equity accretive and pushing the market cap toward the value of its BTC holdings.
  • S&P Dow Jones removed the company from the S&P 500 on Nov. 25, and MSCI will review crypto-heavy constituents in January 2026, a process analysts say could trigger index-linked outflows.
  • Disclosures and reporting cite roughly $54 million of cash against more than $640–$700 million in annual preferred dividends, with coupon step-ups to 10.5% and potential penalty rates up to 18% on some series.
  • Arkham Intelligence tracked about 58,000 BTC moved to Fidelity custody, reducing on-chain visibility, as institutions rotate to spot Bitcoin ETFs and big banks launch BTC-linked products that challenge Strategy’s proxy role.