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Strategy Nears Bitcoin Parity as MSCI Index Decision Approaches

Passive selling risk from a possible MSCI exclusion now frames the next catalyst.

Overview

  • Shares finished 2025 at $151.95 after a six‑month losing streak, leaving the stock down roughly 49% for the year and far underperforming bitcoin.
  • The company holds about 672,497 BTC, its market cap sits near $47 billion versus bitcoin holdings just under $60 billion, and mNAV hovered around 1.02 today.
  • MSCI is weighing a Jan. 15 rule that could exclude firms with more than half their assets in digital tokens, with JPMorgan flagging potential passive outflows up to $8.8 billion if other providers follow.
  • Management bolstered a USD liquidity reserve to roughly $2.19 billion to cover preferred dividends and obligations and still added 1,229 BTC on Dec. 29.
  • Late‑2025 equity issuance totaled about $4.9 billion, much of it below 1.0x mNAV and criticized as dilutive, while an X post claiming a $17.5 billion Q4 GAAP loss remains unverified in company filings.