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Strategy Inc. Braces for Multibillion-Dollar Q4 Loss as Bitcoin Drop Squeezes Valuation

New fair-value rules push Bitcoin’s Q4 slump straight into earnings, pressuring a model once propped up by a valuation premium.

Overview

  • Reports indicate the company will post a multibillion-dollar fourth-quarter loss after Bitcoin fell about 24%, reversing a $2.8 billion profit recorded in the prior quarter.
  • Strategy holds roughly 672,497 BTC worth about $60–$61 billion, and its market-to-NAV multiple has compressed to just above 1, with enterprise value now near the value of its Bitcoin.
  • The stock fell about 48% in 2025 and roughly 66% over six months as the long-standing NAV premium inverted and investors increasingly treated the firm as a leveraged Bitcoin wrapper.
  • To bolster liquidity, Strategy raised about $747.8 million through at-the-market share sales, which management says covers roughly 21 months of dividend and interest obligations.
  • Year-end guidance tied outcomes to a Bitcoin range of $85,000–$110,000, and with BTC ending near $87,600 the result skews toward a loss, while the STRC 11% cash-dividend vehicle was interpreted as a defensive step.