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Strategists See Stocks Climbing in 2026, With Returns Slower Than 2025

Analysts point to the Federal Reserve’s rate path as the swing factor for 2026 equity returns.

Overview

  • A Reuters poll finds most major indexes are expected to finish 2026 higher, yet 56% of respondents anticipate a near-term correction and more volatility.
  • The poll’s median puts the S&P 500 at about 7,490 by end‑2026, while J.P. Morgan sets 7,500 as its baseline and says a deeper Fed easing could push the index past 8,000.
  • European equities are forecast to gain about 11% with the STOXX 600 seen at 623, supported by cheaper valuations and lower tech concentration than the U.S.
  • Germany’s blue‑chip index is projected to reach roughly 25,500 (about +9.7%) and France’s CAC 40 about 8,600 (around +8%) by end‑2026.
  • Japan’s Nikkei is expected to rise about 13% next year and India’s Sensex about 9%, as strategists also flag AI‑driven concentration and valuation risks.