Overview
- September PCE inflation rose 0.3% month over month and about 2.8–2.9% year over year, with core inflation near 2.8%, broadly matching expectations.
- The S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched a fourth straight advance, leaving the S&P roughly half a percent from its record close as the Dow also finished higher.
- CME FedWatch shows about an 87% probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the Dec. 9–10 meeting, which would mark a third consecutive reduction.
- Derivatives markets suggest investors expect three to four additional quarter-point cuts by late 2026.
- Market moves diverged on idiosyncratic news, as Netflix agreed to buy Warner Bros Discovery for about $83 billion and Brazil’s Bovespa slid on Bolsonaro’s support for his son’s presidential bid.