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Stocks Near Record Highs as AI Trade Cools and Oil Headlines Drive Swings

A Goldman Sachs warning on AI capex sustainability injects two-way risk into big tech.

Overview

  • Dow and S&P 500 set fresh records before trading mixed, with the Nasdaq firmer and small caps lagging as Treasury yields eased.
  • Goldman Sachs said AI capex growth is likely to slow and estimated big tech would need an annual profit run-rate above $1 trillion versus a 2026 consensus near $450 billion to justify spending.
  • President Trump said Venezuela will transfer 30–50 million barrels of sanctioned crude for U.S. sale, U.S. authorities seized a Venezuela-linked Russian-flagged tanker, and oil prices fell as energy stocks gave back prior gains.
  • December data showed private payrolls rose by 41,000, ISM services climbed to 54.4, and job openings fell to 7.15 million, reinforcing a mixed labor picture that supported lower bond yields.
  • Nvidia’s CEO said China demand for H200 chips is “quite high” following export approval, while chip and memory names saw sharp reversals after recent surges as market breadth broadened beyond mega-caps.