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Stocks Hold Gains as December Fed Cut Odds Surge, Futures Outage Hits Liquidity

Money markets now assign roughly 80%–85% odds to a quarter-point cut, setting the tone for a cautious, holiday-thinned session.

A graph of the German share price index DAX is displayed at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, November 26, 2025. REUTERS/Staff
A currency trader works near a screen showing the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI), left, and the foreign exchange rate between U.S. dollar and South Korean won at the foreign exchange dealing room of the Hana Bank headquarters in Seoul, South Korea, Friday, Nov. 28, 2025. (AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon)
Currency traders work near a screen showing the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI), left, and the foreign exchange rate between U.S. dollar and South Korean won at the foreign exchange dealing room of the Hana Bank headquarters in Seoul, South Korea, Friday, Nov. 28, 2025. (AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon)
Currency traders watch monitors near a screen showing the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) at the foreign exchange dealing room of the Hana Bank headquarters in Seoul, South Korea, Friday, Nov. 28, 2025. (AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon)

Overview

  • Global equities steadied after a four-day rally trimmed November losses, with the MSCI ACWI nearly flat and S&P 500 futures little changed during the U.S. Thanksgiving break.
  • Semiconductor shares led tech higher earlier in the week, helping lift major U.S. indexes on Wednesday (S&P 500 +0.69%, Dow +0.67%, Nasdaq 100 +0.87%).
  • CME Group reported a data-centre outage that halted a wide range of futures trading on currencies, commodities, Treasuries and stocks, further draining liquidity ahead of Friday’s shortened U.S. session.
  • Tokyo’s core CPI rose 2.8% year on year in November, slightly above forecasts, keeping talk of potential Bank of Japan tightening alive as markets price a modest chance of a hike.
  • The Nasdaq Composite remains on track to break a seven-month winning streak, while risk appetite has shown signs of returning with bitcoin trading back above $90,000.