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Stifel Raises Tesla Target to $508 on Autonomy Momentum as Shares Gain

The call rests on long-term software economics despite near-term demand uncertainty.

Overview

  • Stifel’s Stephen Gengaro lifted the price target to $508 and kept a Buy rating, citing progress in FSD and the paid robotaxi rollout while increasing 2025–2026 EBITDA estimates.
  • Tesla’s paid robotaxi service operates in Austin and the Bay Area with safety drivers, with management targeting coverage in roughly 8–10 metro areas by year-end and aiming to remove safety drivers in Austin by year-end.
  • FSD Version 14 (supervised) has rolled out, and planned updates are expected to add reasoning capabilities as the system’s decision-making improves.
  • Tesla introduced lower-priced “standard” Model 3 and Model Y trims after the U.S. EV tax credit expired, yet early inventory listings signal ongoing demand questions.
  • TD Cowen reaffirmed a Buy with a $509 target after testing FSD V14 and touring Giga Texas, estimating Cybercab costs near $0.30 per mile and noting Tesla plans to begin production in April 2026.