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Stifel Lifts IBM Price Target on $11 Billion Confluent Deal Focused on Real-Time AI Data

The all-cash purchase of the Kafka steward targets a mid-2026 close pending a shareholder vote with regulatory review outstanding.

Overview

  • IBM agreed to buy Confluent for $31 per share in cash, valuing the transaction at roughly $11 billion with a planned closing by mid-2026.
  • A regulatory filing outlines a $453.6 million termination fee payable by IBM if the deal is not completed.
  • IBM projects the acquisition will be accretive to adjusted EBITDA in the first year after closing and to free cash flow in the second year.
  • Confluent’s Apache Kafka–based streaming platform, used by about 6,500 customers with a 2025 revenue run rate just over $1 billion, is positioned to supply real-time data for enterprise AI.
  • Stifel raised its IBM price target to $325 and kept a Buy rating, citing the strategic fit for AI use cases and expected cost synergies, while Confluent shares jumped nearly 30% after the announcement.