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STF Split Over Removal Orders Deepens as Lula’s Bet Ban and Poll Gain Reshape Final Week

A federal police report has triggered a court clash that could sway undecided and religious voters while campaigns intensify ahead of the Oct. 4 vote.

Overview

  • A Polícia Federal report based on material seized from banker Daniel Vorcaro set off a judicial crisis, leading TSE minister André Mendonça to order removal of hundreds of online posts and STF minister Flávio Dino to annul that order and restore the publications.
  • The dispute widened after TSE president Kassio Nunes Marques declined to place Mendonça’s removal order on the court’s plenary agenda, and Flávio Bolsonaro’s legal team filed a petition at the STF asking to suspend Dino’s decision and send the matter to the full bench.
  • President Lula signed a provisional measure banning fixed‑odds bets, a move announced on Friday that pollsters and strategists say helped his standing; a Quaest survey of 2,004 voters, conducted Sept. 24–27 and published Sept. 28, shows Lula leading the first round 39% to 34%.
  • The Quaest data show Lula gaining with women, low‑income voters and beneficiaries of Bolsa Família and improving among Catholics and evangelicals, while the Nossa Senhora Aparecida disinformation episode has intensified religious messaging and voter mobilization on both sides.
  • Investigations linked to the ‘Dark horse’ case, which probe alleged payments or requests involving Vorcaro and political figures, continue to fuel polarization and legal fights that may affect turnout, protest votes and the trajectory of the race in the last days before Oct. 4.