Overview
- Brazil’s Supreme Court rejected appeals in the case tied to the coup-plot “crucial nucleus,” intensifying Jair Bolsonaro’s isolation and raising the prospect of a temporary prison regime.
- The PL lacks consolidated gubernatorial pre-candidates in the four largest electorates, ceding space to Republicanos, União Brasil and PSD as the 2026 cycle approaches.
- In Rio de Janeiro, succession planning remains disorganized as party leaders flirt with an alliance with Mayor Eduardo Paes, while Flávio Bolsonaro opposes the move and Governor Cláudio Castro’s next step is unclear.
- In São Paulo and Minas Gerais, uncertainty grows over slates and alliances, complicated by Eduardo Bolsonaro’s absence abroad following a PGR denunciation and by unresolved decisions on a Senate candidacy in SP.
- In Santa Catarina, Carlos Bolsonaro’s relocation and Senate bid split the PL, jeopardizing Caroline de Toni’s position and forcing Governor Jorginho Mello to choose between a family-backed ticket and long-standing PP–União Brasil ties.