Overview
- Emerson College’s Oct. 20–21 poll of 900 likely voters shows Hilton at 16% and Katie Porter at 15%, a one‑point gap within the ±3.2 percentage point margin of error.
- Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco registers 11%, with Antonio Villaraigosa and Xavier Becerra at 5% each, and all others in single digits.
- Compared with Emerson’s August survey, Porter has slipped from 18% to 15% as Hilton has risen from 12% to 16%.
- The polling follows viral clips involving Porter that drew criticism, as both her campaign and Hilton’s issued statements presenting the results as validation of their messages.
- With California’s top‑two primary and a historically Democratic electorate, analysts caution that early standings could shift significantly before the June 2, 2026 primary.