Overview
- Manhattan Institute survey conducted Oct. 22–26 shows Elise Stefanik at 43% to Kathy Hochul’s 42%, a statistical tie within the poll’s roughly ±3.3-point margin of error.
- Axios reports Stefanik has built a campaign team for a November launch after the New York City mayoral election, with more than $13 million on hand and several veteran Trump advisers joining.
- Hochul’s campaign dismissed the poll as partisan and attacked Stefanik’s ties to Trump megadonors, while Stefanik’s team touted the result as evidence New York is competitive.
- The same poll finds Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani leading the NYC mayoral field 43%–28%–19%, even as majorities oppose several of his policy positions cited in the survey.
- Recent polling has diverged sharply, with Siena College’s September poll showing Hochul up by about 25 points, underscoring volatility in early readings of the 2026 race.