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Statistics Canada Revises Estimates as Canada’s Population Growth Hits Decades‑Low

Updated IRCC permit records plus methodological changes caused a large correction to non‑permanent resident counts, prompting public scrutiny.

Overview

  • Statistics Canada’s September revision sets Canada’s population at 41,798,407 and reports annual growth of 0.5 percent from the prior year.
  • The agency says July‑to‑July growth is the weakest in magnitude since 1944/45 and the smallest percentage increase since 1915/16 after a peak annual rate of about 2.8 percent in 2023/24.
  • Non‑permanent residents fell by 154,614 to 2,779,774, a drop StatCan attributes mainly to sharp declines in study permit holders and combined work‑and‑study permit holders.
  • StatCan says the unusually large revisions came after it received more complete IRCC administrative records showing permit extensions and after it introduced methodological adjustments, while independent analysts have highlighted large discrepancies in earlier preliminary figures, including a reported 301,008 upward revision for April 1.
  • The revisions sharpen concerns about Canada’s aging population and low fertility (1.26), create immediate questions for universities and labour markets that rely on international students and temporary workers, and raise pressure for clearer timing and transparency in how StatCan and IRCC share and use permit data.