Statistical Analysis of Baby Deaths at Lucy Letby’s Hospital Highlights Need for Context

Experts testify that a rise in neonatal deaths at the Countess of Chester Hospital in 2015 warranted investigation but was not statistically unusual on a national scale.

• The Thirlwall Inquiry heard from Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, who emphasized the importance of statistical context in analyzing the rise in neonatal deaths at the Countess of Chester Hospital in 2015.
• The neonatal unit recorded nine deaths in 2015, up from an average of 2.4 deaths per year between 2010 and 2014, prompting an internal investigation.
• Spiegelhalter testified that such a spike would be expected to occur once a year nationally among the 150 neonatal units in the UK and was not extreme enough to be considered an outlier.
• The hospital’s neonatal mortality rate was the highest among similar-sized units in 2015, but only marginally above others, with Blackpool recording eight deaths that same year.
• The inquiry is in its final week of evidence, with findings on the hospital’s performance and broader implications expected to be published in the autumn.

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