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State Polls Split: Lula Leads in Pará While Flávio Holds Edge in São Paulo

The divergent early-September state snapshots matter for campaign strategy because São Paulo is Brazil’s largest electorate and recent TV and radio advertising has begun to shift local dynamics.

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Overview

  • A Real Time Big Data survey of 1,600 Pará voters reports Lula at 41% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 31% in a first-round scenario, with a second-round simulation showing Lula 44% to Flávio 36%; the poll lists a ±2 point margin of error and registration BR-04485/2026.
  • Quaest’s 1,800-voter poll in São Paulo shows Flávio at 31% and Lula at 30% in the first round, and a São Paulo second-round edge for Flávio at 41% to Lula’s 33%, with a reported ±2 point margin and registration SP-00959/2026.
  • Both polls indicate sizable third-party support in the states — writer Augusto Cury registers roughly 7–8% — a level that can fragment the first round and change how votes transfer in a runoff.
  • The São Paulo survey is the first measured after the start of official TV and radio campaign advertising, which analysts say could help explain local shifts that differ from national trends where Lula still leads.
  • These figures are recent snapshots taken less than a month before the election and should be read with caution because margins of error, state-by-state variation and unresolved candidate eligibility issues can alter outcomes.