Overview
- Official data showed September CPI inflation at 3.5% while confirmed average earnings growth for May–July was 3.9%, and that gap means the earnings measure will determine the April 2027 increase.
- The rise translates to about £4.60 extra a week for a full new state pension, roughly £489 a year, taking the annual flat‑rate payment to about £13,036.
- Because the new annual total would sit slightly above the £12,570 personal tax allowance some sole‑pension recipients could face small tax bills unless the Treasury applies the Budget pledge to exempt those with only state pension income from Simple Assessment from April 2027.
- Labour says it will keep the Triple Lock for the current Parliament but plans to remove the automatic earnings element from April 2030 and replace it with a different long‑run earnings link to help fund a National Care Service.
- The ONS said higher transport costs, especially petrol and diesel at four‑year highs, were the main drivers of the September CPI rise which fed into the Triple Lock calculation and therefore the likely uprating.