Overview

• The ONS reported May–July earnings growth of 4.7%, making an earnings‑led uprating the likely outcome under the triple lock.
• A 4.7% rise would lift the full new state pension to about £241.05 a week, roughly £12,534 a year, with the basic pension projected at £184.75 a week.
• Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden said the triple lock will be maintained for this Parliament, with cumulative increases estimated at about £1,900 by its end.
• The DWP forecasts around 30% of recipients — about 4 million people — will be liable for income tax on their state pension in 2026/27 as payments near the £12,570 personal allowance.
• The final uprating awaits September CPI data due in October and formal confirmation at the 26 November Budget, with legacy pension elements uprated differently and watchdogs warning of rising long‑term costs.