State Elections Begin in India, Seen as Key Test for PM Modi's Popularity Ahead of 2024 National Polls

Voting commences in key states Mizoram and Chhattisgarh while economic struggles and recent opposition victories in Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh glare a challenge; indications of national mood will be gauged amid political maneuvers by the consolidated opposition alliance, INDIA.

Millions have begun voting in state elections in India that are viewed as a key test for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's popularity ahead of the 2024 national elections. The first to vote were the states of Mizoram and Chhattisgarh, with upcoming polls in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Telangana over the next three weeks.
The opposition Congress party, which currently holds power in Mizoram and Chhattisgarh, has formed a coalition known as 'INDIA' comprising 26 other political parties to oppose Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The Congress party has recently toppled local BJP governments in Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh, denting the BJP's image of invincibility.
Despite Modi's continuing national popularity and the expectation that he will win a third term as Prime Minister, the BJP is facing numerous challenges. These include economic hardship, rising unemployment and inflation, and alleged bias against India's Muslim minority.
There is a possibility that the BJP's influence in the Northeast region, which has typically been inward looking and relatively unaffected by national politics, may be tested in this election. Recent ethnic violence in Manipur, a northeastern state neighboring Mizoram, has made voters wary of the BJP.
The elections also serve as a litmus test for the INDIA alliance's strength. Despite in-house rivalries preventing its extension to the state elections, the alliance's objective remains unaltered: to limit Modi's increasing influence. Apart from these internal dynamics, localized factors such as Modi's inability to create jobs, address rural distress, and manage communal fault lines, will also impact the results.