Overview

• Large MRP seat models published this week project Reform UK as the leading party, with estimates ranging from 311 seats in YouGov’s analysis to 373 in More in Common’s, though the next general election is not due until 2029.
• Ipsos reports just 13% of voters are satisfied with Starmer’s performance, the lowest rating for a UK prime minister since its tracking began in 1977.
• In a BBC interview, Starmer urged members to stop navel-gazing and called the contest with Reform the “fight of our lives,” condemning proposals to scrap indefinite leave to remain as immoral and racist.
• Unite’s Sharon Graham warned the union could reconsider its Labour affiliation without a shift in economic policy, casting the November 26 budget as a key moment for funding and direction.
• Leadership speculation continues around Manchester mayor Andy Burnham, who says some MPs have approached him, though he would need a Commons seat and 80 MP nominations; ministers also trailed potential policy moves, including revisiting the two-child benefit cap, pledging three new towns, and a migration law “reset.”