Overview

• New MRP projections diverge but point the same way, with YouGov modelling Reform as the largest party on 311 seats and More in Common estimating a far bigger majority of 373.
• Ipsos reports Keir Starmer’s net satisfaction at minus 66, the lowest recorded for a UK prime minister since the series began in 1977.
• A Survation survey of Labour members for LabourList finds 53% want a new leader before the next general election, underscoring discontent in the party.
• Andy Burnham’s interventions fuel leadership speculation, though party rules mean he would need a Commons seat and at least 80 MPs’ nominations to force a contest.
• Starmer pitches “patriotic renewal” and readies policy moves at conference, including a pledge to start three new towns, signals on the two‑child benefit cap, tougher migration rules, and a push for an EU youth mobility scheme.