Overview

• In a BBC interview, the prime minister refused to explicitly rule out increasing VAT ahead of November’s Budget, reiterating that “the manifesto stands.”
• The Times reports the Office for Budget Responsibility will deliver forecasts this week that could leave about £30 billion to find through revenues or savings.
• CityAM separately reports Treasury work to plug a roughly £20 billion gap as ministers review revenue options ahead of the Autumn Budget.
• HMRC modelling indicates a one‑percentage‑point rise in the standard VAT rate could raise about £8.8 billion in 2026/27.
• Chancellor Rachel Reeves is reported to be weighing scrapping the 5% VAT on domestic energy—saving households about £86 a year at an estimated £1.75 billion fiscal cost—as Conservatives demand an explicit VAT pledge and Unite urges looser fiscal rules.