Starlink Reentries Now Daily, Projected to Reach About Five a Day

Overview

• Tracking by astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell shows roughly one to two Starlink satellites currently fall back each day, with about 8,000 now in orbit and rates expected to climb as more constellations launch.
• The FAA’s 2023 assessment estimates up to 28,000 pieces could survive reentry in coming years and cautions that debris could seriously injure or kill someone within ten years.
• SpaceX tells regulators its satellites are designed to fully burn up on descent, while Elon Musk has acknowledged that some do not completely disintegrate.
• Scientists warn that mounting debris increases the chance of a collision cascade known as Kessler syndrome, with the 600–1,000 km band flagged as especially vulnerable due to legacy rocket stages.
• Researchers have raised concerns that materials released during frequent reentries could harm the stratosphere, potentially elevating long‑term risks such as skin cancers and cataracts.