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Stanford Payroll Study Points to Entry-Level Job Losses in AI-Exposed Roles as UK Unions Press Worker-First Plan

The working paper analyzes millions of ADP payroll records through July 2025 to identify early-career declines concentrated in AI-intensive occupations.

Overview

  • Employment for 22–25-year-olds in occupations most exposed to generative AI fell about 13% since 2022, according to a Stanford working paper using ADP data.
  • Entry-level roles in software engineering and customer service saw some of the steepest declines, with roughly 20% drops for younger workers through July 2025, CBS reported.
  • Older workers in the same occupations, and workers of all ages in less-exposed fields such as health aides, experienced steady or rising employment.
  • The authors say the results show strong correlations rather than definitive causation and report controlling for factors such as education, remote work and broader economic shifts.
  • UK’s Trades Union Congress unveiled a worker-first AI strategy calling for retraining, guardrails and conditions on public AI funding, alongside a poll showing about 51% of adults worry about AI’s impact on their jobs.