Overview

• Using anonymized ADP payroll records, researchers found a roughly 13% relative decline since late 2022 in employment for workers aged 22–25 in the most AI‑exposed occupations, with larger drops reported in areas like software development and customer support.
• The analysis covers January 2021 through July 2025 and attributes the shift to the period following generative AI’s takeoff, with results robust to controls for firm‑level shocks and broader labor‑market trends.
• The adjustment so far shows up in reduced hiring and employment for early‑career workers rather than falling wages, which have remained comparatively steady across exposure groups.
• Older, more experienced workers in the same AI‑exposed occupations saw employment hold steady or rise, underscoring a divide between entry‑level roles and positions that rely more on tacit knowledge.
• The findings land as corporate AI returns remain contested, with MIT NANDA’s widely cited 95% zero‑return claim drawing methodological criticism, reports of some firms reversing AI‑only replacements, and work underway on a near‑real‑time AI labor dashboard.