Overview

• Researchers report a 13% relative employment decline for ages 22–25 in the most AI-exposed jobs since late 2022, with some measures ranging from about 6% to roughly 16%.
• Losses are concentrated where AI substitutes for routine tasks, such as software development and customer support, while augmentative uses show stable or rising entry-level employment.
• The labor-market adjustment is occurring mainly through reduced hiring rather than wage cuts, with little change in salary trends by age or exposure.
• The analysis draws on millions of ADP payroll records and ties the timing to the generative-AI rollout, controlling for COVID-era effects, interest-rate shocks, and firm-level hiring swings.
• The findings land as a separate MIT report’s 95% no-ROI claim faces methodological criticism, reinforcing calls for better monitoring, reskilling, and clearer evaluation of automation versus augmentation.