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2h ago

Stanford Payroll Study Finds Early-Career Losses in AI-Exposed Jobs

Using millions of ADP records through July, researchers report declines concentrated in roles most susceptible to automation.

Stanford University’s campus is seen from above on Dec. 11, 2024.
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Overview

  • Employment for 22- to 25-year-olds has fallen since late 2022 in occupations with high generative-AI exposure, including software development and customer service.
  • Older workers in the same occupations have not seen comparable declines, and mid- to late-career employment has generally risen during the period.
  • Overall early-career employment has been roughly flat even as the broader U.S. labor market remained strong, indicating a cohort-specific drag.
  • The study finds typical pay ranges in affected occupations have not meaningfully shifted, suggesting firms are trimming entry-level hiring rather than cutting wages.
  • Researchers say AI exposure best explains the observed patterns after testing alternative factors, while cautioning the results do not prove definitive causation.