Overview
- The bank cut its end-2026 ETH target to $7,500 from $12,000, trimmed 2027–2028 projections, and raised late-decade goals to $30,000 in 2029 and $40,000 in 2030.
- Geoffrey Kendrick expects the ETH/BTC ratio to trend back toward 2021 highs around 0.08, framing 2026 as an inflection for relative performance.
- The thesis leans on Ethereum’s lead in stablecoins, tokenized real-world assets, and DeFi plus plans to boost layer-1 throughput roughly 10x over two to three years.
- Cited flows include continued treasury accumulation such as BitMine Immersion’s purchase of 24,266 ETH last week, even as ETF inflows have slowed.
- Regulatory progress is flagged as a catalyst, with the U.S. CLARITY Act set for Senate review on Jan. 15 and possible Q1 passage, while weaker Bitcoin has weighed on dollar targets through 2028.