Overview

• Geoff Kendrick argues the 18-month post-halving price pattern has lost its predictive power.
• The bank forecasts Bitcoin reaching about $135,000 by end-Q3 2025 and climbing to $200,000 by year-end.
• ETF inflows and corporate treasury purchases totaled 245,000 BTC in Q2 and are expected to accelerate.
• Potential early Fed leadership changes and U.S. stablecoin legislation could provide additional upside.
• The report underscores a shift from supply-driven cycles to a demand-driven paradigm anchored by institutional buying.