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St. Martin's Day Fog Points to Higher Odds of a Mild German Winter

DWD statistics show the fog rule often matches mild winters.

Overview

  • Morning reports noted widespread fog across eastern and southeastern Germany on November 11.
  • The German Weather Service says fog on this date preceded mild winters in six to seven of ten cases, rising to about 75% if November 19–23 are also moist and dull.
  • Forecasts call for an influx of mild maritime air with highs near 10–16°C today, reaching about 22°C on the Upper Rhine later this week but only around 8°C where fog persists in Lower Bavaria.
  • Other proverbs link sunshine or frost on St. Martin to a cold season, yet a weather portal rates the frost-related “white beard” rule as having no statistical validity.
  • Meteorologists describe a recurring early‑November warm spell as the Martini‑Sommer singularity, and one long-running analysis estimates average farmers’ rules succeed roughly two thirds of the time.