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Split Polls, Online Flap and Trade Signal Define Final Stretch of Japan’s LDP Leadership Race

A runoff looks likely under rules that boost lawmakers’ influence, setting up immediate coalition negotiations.

Overview

  • Voting is set for Oct. 4 to choose Shigeru Ishiba’s successor, with five candidates competing and no clear first‑round majority expected under the LDP’s 590‑vote system.
  • New Yomiuri surveys project Shinjiro Koizumi ahead overall and among lawmakers, while a Kyodo poll of party supporters puts Sanae Takaichi first, underscoring a split between elites and the grassroots.
  • Koizumi apologized after a campaign aide, former digital minister Karen Makishima, resigned over soliciting favorable online comments, and opposition parties urged the LDP to investigate.
  • Sanae Takaichi said Japan could seek to renegotiate the recent US trade deal, including a reported US$550 billion investment component, if implementation proves unfair to Japan; Koizumi defended the agreement.
  • Government and LDP sources are coordinating an extraordinary Diet session for Oct. 14 or later to elect the new prime minister, as top contenders signal openness to expanding the coalition and local LDP chapters push for tighter foreign land‑purchase rules while supporters prioritize easing living costs.