Overview
- Tuesday’s competing polls present two different races: Channel 12 shows Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar! as the largest party while Channel 14 gives Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud the edge.
- Several small lists, most notably Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael and the Reservists‑Economic list led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha, are polling around the 3.25% cutoff so their survival or collapse could reallocate key Knesset seats.
- Itamar Ben‑Gvir publicly refused to sign a surplus‑vote agreement with Winter’s party, which increases the chance that right‑wing votes below the threshold will be wasted and further narrow Netanyahu’s bloc.
- Defense Minister Yisrael Katz and Prime Minister Netanyahu warned of Iranian‑linked efforts to influence the vote through attacks, a security claim that has raised tensions and voter mobilization appeals.
- With no clear path to a stable 61‑seat majority in the published surveys, the final result now hinges on last‑minute voter turnout, which small parties clear the threshold, and post‑vote bargaining over surplus votes and coalition deals.