Overview
- Many economists expect Bank Rate to be held at 4%, though a 25 basis point cut is also seen as a live possibility.
- Analysts map a potential four–four split on the committee, which would leave Governor Andrew Bailey to determine the outcome.
- Swati Dhingra, Alan Taylor, Sarah Breeden and Dave Ramsden are tipped to back a cut, while Catherine Mann, Megan Greene, Clare Lombardelli and Huw Pill are expected to vote for a hold.
- Fresh Decision Maker Panel survey results on inflation expectations are due the same day and are cited as a key input alongside focus on the upcoming Budget.
- Inflation last printed at 3.8%, below the Bank’s forecast yet above target, and views differ with ING leaning to a hold and Barclays calling for a cut; some analysis even floats a 50bp cut from Dhingra or Taylor.