SPC Issues Severe Thunderstorm Watch for West Texas as Heavy-Rain Band Elevates Flood Risk

Overview

• The watch, in effect from 2:15 to 10:00 p.m. CST, targets parts of the Permian Basin and Pecos Valley with threats of hail up to 2 inches, wind gusts to 70 mph, and a brief tornado.
• SPC reported a favorable environment for organized storms across the Permian Basin and Edwards Plateau, with initial supercells transitioning toward a broken line.
• WPC highlighted a consolidating band over the Edwards Plateau and Concho Valley capable of training, with rainfall rates near 2 inches per hour and local totals up to 4 inches through midnight CST, raising flash-flood concerns.
• A late-evening SPC update said the severe threat had become sufficiently isolated to forgo issuing additional watches downstream of WW 637.
• Analyses cited CAPE of roughly 1000–2000 J/kg, a 60–70 kt midlevel jet, and effective bulk shear of 50–70 kt supporting the convection following dryline initiation near and north of Midland.