Overview

• Moncloa has moved to a pre‑electoral strategy of rapid announcements and sectoral measures, with Sánchez scheduling rallies in Castilla y León and insisting the term will run its course.
• Judicial timelines add volatility: a Madrid judge extended jury trial coverage to all charges against Begoña Gómez, and the Supreme Court set a secrets‑revelation trial for 3–13 November.
• Cross‑vetoes among partners have stalled signature initiatives, including the shorter working week and the delegation of immigration powers to Catalonia, with other bills such as the ‘gag law’ reform mired in disputes.
• Parties are activating campaign machinery without firm dates, with Castilla y León expected to vote in March 2026 and potential calendar shifts in Andalusia, Extremadura and Aragon.
• A 40dB. survey places the PP at 30.5% and the PSOE at 29.4%, the closest since 2023, while Vox gains several points at the PP’s expense, reflecting strong voter fidelity to Abascal’s party.