Overview
- An official study by the Academia General Militar published about a year ago warned that sustained migratory pressure could be used as an "invasión encubierta" targeting the Spanish enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla.
- The study predicted a state actor would avoid armed conflict and instead present a mass crossing as a spontaneous flow of migrants to mask strategic intent.
- More than 80,000 people entered Ceuta irregularly on July 30–31, 2026, an event the newly published document closely resembles in its scenario and timing.
- On September 15–16, El Correo and Diario Sur reported they obtained the Defence paper and highlighted its framing of the episode as hybrid warfare and its proposed military and policy responses.
- The reporting has prompted questions about Spain's preparedness, transparency over Defence assessments, and the diplomatic implications with Morocco while the articles note no public Moroccan response or new official actions so far.