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yesterday

Spanberger’s Lead in Virginia Governor’s Race Narrows to 7 Points

Republicans have consolidated behind Winsome Earle-Sears, tightening the contest heading toward November.

Former Rep. Abigail Spanberger attends a campaign event in Louisa, Virginia on November 1, 2018. Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears presides over the Senate on February 8, 2022 in Richmond, Virginia.
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Overview

  • Roanoke College/IPOR surveyed 702 Virginia residents Aug. 11–15 and found Spanberger at 46 percent to Earle‑Sears at 39 percent with 14 percent undecided and a margin of error of about ±4.3 points.
  • The gap has narrowed substantially since May, when the same pollster measured a 43 percent to 26 percent advantage for Spanberger.
  • Down-ballot races are tight, with Democrat Ghazala Hashmi leading John Reid 38 percent to 35 percent and Democrat Jay Jones ahead of Attorney General Jason Miyares 41 percent to 38 percent.
  • Environment metrics have ticked up for Republicans, including Trump’s Virginia approval rising to 41 percent and a majority now saying the commonwealth is on the right track.
  • The poll was weighted to the 2021 exit electorate as GOP leaders flag fundraising disadvantages and reporting describes tensions between Earle‑Sears and Reid that could test party unity.