Overview

• Decision Desk HQ’s latest average shows Abigail Spanberger leading Winsome Earle-Sears by roughly seven points going into the Nov. 4 election.
• Earle-Sears rolled out new ads accusing Spanberger of supporting “they/them” policies, allowing “men in girls’ locker rooms,” and keeping parents unaware of children seeking gender-affirming care.
• Gov. Glenn Youngkin and Earle-Sears highlighted local incidents, including a WJLA report on an Arlington locker-room exposure case and a Defense of Freedom Institute complaint alleging West Springfield High allowed a boy in the girls’ locker room.
• Fairfax County Public Schools said staff are working with the students and families on locker-room concerns and cited confidentiality, and the Education Department separately opened an investigation into the district’s handling of abortion resources.
• Spanberger is campaigning on affordability, federal workforce cuts and shutdown risks, as GOP strategists warn Earle-Sears’s culture-focused approach may lag voters’ top concern with cost of living reflected in recent polling.