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Spanberger Leads Earle-Sears by 3 Points in New Virginia Poll

Earle-Sears has closed the gap after a campaign reset that emphasized schools-focused messaging.

L: Former Rep. Abigail Spanberger attends a campaign event in Louisa, Virginia, on November 1, 2018. R: Virginia Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears presides over the state Senate on February 8, 2022.
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VIENNA, VIRGINIA - JULY 01: Republican Virginia gubernatorial candidate Winsome Earle-Sear speaks during a campaign event at the Vienna Volunteer Fire Department on July 01, 2025 in Vienna, Virginia. Earle-Sears is the Commonwealth's first female and Black Republican nominee for governor, facing Democrat former U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger in the fall. (Photo by Kayla Bartkowski/Getty Images)
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Overview

  • An A2 Insights survey conducted Sept. 26–28 finds Spanberger at 47.7% and Earle-Sears at 44.6%, placing the contest within the poll’s margin of error.
  • The latest reading contrasts with early-September polls from CNU’s Wason Center (52%–40%) and VCU’s Wilder School (49%–40%) that showed Spanberger with a larger advantage.
  • Earle-Sears retooled her operation in July and has increased media appearances while targeting education flashpoints in Northern Virginia counties such as Loudoun, Fairfax, and Prince William.
  • A $500,000 contribution from BET co-founder Robert L. Johnson followed a widely condemned Arlington school board incident, boosting the Republican’s late resources.
  • Spanberger retains a significant fundraising edge and the Virginia Police Benevolent Association’s endorsement as early voting proceeds and both parties treat the race as a bellwether.