Overview

• The May 12–19 Roanoke College poll shows Spanberger at 43% and Earle-Sears at 26% among likely voters.
• Spanberger dominates independent voters, taking 33% to Earle-Sears’ 19%, underscoring her appeal beyond the Democratic base.
• Earle-Sears rolled out the “Always” ad with $1 million in backing, emphasizing her Marine service, working-class roots and partnership with Gov. Youngkin.
• The Republican nominee has targeted Spanberger’s voting record on immigration, transgender rights in sports and her shift on Virginia’s right-to-work law.
• Low approval ratings for Gov. Youngkin (46%) and President Trump (31%) amplify the race’s role as an early indicator for the 2026 midterms.