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Spanberger Extends Double-Digit Lead as Earle-Sears Overhauls Campaign Staff

Spanberger’s 12-point advantage in the latest VCU survey follows her opponent’s overhaul of campaign staff after falling behind in fundraising.

Former Representative Abigail Spanberger speaks in Dumfries, Virginia on October 25, 2022.
Republican Virginia gubernatorial candidate Winsome Earle-Sears during a campaign event in Vienna, Va., on July 1, 2025.

Overview

  • A VCU Wilder School poll finds Spanberger leading 49% to 37% among registered Virginia voters based on interviews with 764 respondents from June 19 to July 3 (margin of error ±4.16 percentage points).
  • Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears asked her campaign manager to step down and saw her political director leave after falling behind in polling and fundraising.
  • Spanberger has outpaced her opponent in fundraising, raising $23.5 million compared to Earle-Sears’s $11.6 million and holding roughly $15 million in cash on hand to $4.5 million.
  • Democrats Ghazala Hashmi and Jay Jones each lead in their respective lieutenant governor and attorney general races, though about half of independent voters remain undecided.
  • The Cook Political Report rates the Virginia governor’s race as lean Democratic, with the outcome seen as a barometer for the 2026 midterm elections.