Overview

• The latest Roanoke poll conducted May 12–19 shows Spanberger at 43% and Earle-Sears at 26%, a 17-point margin among likely voters.
• Spanberger leads independents by 14 points and 28% of respondents remain undecided, leaving room for shifts in the race.
• On May 28, Earle-Sears launched a $1 million “Always” ad highlighting her Marine service, working-class background and Youngkin’s endorsement.
• Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s approval has fallen to 46% and President Trump’s stands at 31%, presenting headwinds for the Republican campaign.
• Both contenders are ramping up fall preparations in a contest seen as an early test of party strength ahead of the 2026 midterms.