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Spain’s Two-Week Campaign Opens After Housing Decree Revalidated and Polls Diverge

Revalidating the contested housing decree makes turnout, televised debates and tight local battles decisive for whether the left retains power or a PP–Vox bloc wins an absolute majority

Overview

  • The official two-week campaign opened at midnight on Thursday, launching a frantic stretch of rallies, scheduled televised debates and final canvassing before voting on November 29.
  • The Diputación Permanente of the Congreso moved to convalidate the housing decree that had triggered the snap election, returning measures on evictions, two‑year rental extensions and a 2% cap on rent rises to the political center of the campaign.
  • Most private pollsters continue to project a PP–Vox bloc capable of an absolute majority, while the public CIS poll released at the campaign start forecasts a PSOE plurality and denies the right‑wing bloc a majority.
  • Vox is pursuing a transversal strategy that targets former PSOE voters and specific districts such as Murcia, Madrid and Almería where it hopes to overtake the socialists, intensifying visits across provinces and Ceuta.
  • Demographic shifts could decide the outcome: there are 1.6 million new registered voters and surveys show younger men leaning right and younger women leaning left, so turnout and constituency-level swings will shape coalition arithmetic after the vote.