Overview

• The ECB estimates homes were about 14.3% overvalued in Q3 2025, roughly three points higher than a year earlier.
• Economist Gonzalo Bernardos expects the boom to continue, projecting roughly 780,000 sales this year, about 840,000 in 2026, and price growth near 8% next year.
• Strain is changing behavior: Idealista reports a 24% annual rise in rooms offered in shared flats, and the share of buyers aged 18–30 has fallen to 9.5% from 22.5% in 2007, according to the notaries’ tech center.
• Offering a contrasting view, analyst Sergio Gutiérrez says prices in big cities have likely peaked and urges would‑be sellers to move now, citing fund disposals, an 800,000‑home shortfall, and a likely shift to flat or mildly lower prices rather than a crash.
• Policy prescriptions and warnings vary: Bernardos urges legal certainty and fiscal incentives to unlock rental supply, while Santiago Niño Becerra argues housing has become speculative and says increases will end when the middle class can no longer pay.