U.S. 25% Tariff Hits Brazil as Lula Unveils R$18.5 Billion Rescue and Opposition Links Measure to Bolsonaros

Overview

• A 25% tariff imposed by the U.S. took effect on July 22, 2026, and the Lula administration responded the same day by announcing Brasil Soberano 3, a R$18.5 billion credit package to support exporters and hit industries.
• The government says it will keep negotiating with U.S. officials but expects significant progress only after the October elections and has avoided immediate reciprocal trade retaliation while studying impacts.
• U.S. officials may add a separate 12.5% surcharge tied to forced‑labor probes, a move Brasília says could stack with the 25% duty and deepen costs for sectors such as steel, auto parts, machinery and timber.
• The PT launched the 'O Brasil Não Se Entrega' campaign to tie the tariff decision to meetings between Bolsonaro family members and U.S. actors, and the party is weighing legal steps over Flávio Bolsonaro's claims about electronic voting.
• Flávio Bolsonaro has moved his campaign HQ to São Paulo, adopted a harder Bolsonarist tone that worries potential centrist allies, and faces ongoing legal pressure as Alexandre de Moraes limited his visits to Jair and the Federal Police recommended Eduardo Bolsonaro's dismissal.