Overview

• Spain’s economy expanded 0.7% in Q2, up from 0.6% in Q1 and ahead of Bank of Spain forecasts, driven by 1.1% export growth, a 2.1% surge in business investment and 0.8% household consumption gains.
• France’s GDP rose 0.3% in Q2, surpassing Insee’s 0.2% projection, with stock accumulation contributing 0.5 percentage point and household spending ticking up 0.1%.
• Excluding inventory effects, France’s final domestic demand stagnated and business investment fell 0.3%, weighed down by a downturn in construction.
• US duties on most EU imports, at 10% since April, will climb to 15% on August 1 under President Trump’s agreement, posing broader trade headwinds for both economies.
• Spain’s limited US export exposure (5%) and robust external sales keep it on track for its 2.6% 2025 growth target, while France pegs its full-year expansion at around 0.6%–0.7% amid fiscal consolidation.