Overview
- The European Commission’s Autumn Forecast pegs Spain’s 2025 GDP growth at 2.9%, the fastest among the eurozone’s largest economies.
- Germany is forecast to grow 0.2% in 2025, France 0.7% and Italy 0.4%, underscoring Spain’s outperformance.
- Brussels cites private consumption and investment as the main engines, with sustained migrant inflows supporting jobs and demand, while a slowdown in migration is flagged as a risk.
- The eurozone growth outlook for 2025 rises to 1.3% and the EU to 1.4%, with officials noting trade barriers at historic highs even as the U.S. pact reduces uncertainty.
- Spain’s expansion is seen moderating to 2.3% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027, and its deficit is now projected at about 2.5% of GDP in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026, as Madrid plans to update its own 2025 forecast at the Council of Ministers.