Overview

• INE data show second‑hand homes rose 12.8% year over year and new homes 12.1%, with overall prices up 4.0% from the prior quarter and 45 straight quarters of annual increases.
• All regions recorded double‑digit gains, led by Murcia at 14.6%, with Aragón and La Rioja at 13.7% and Madrid at 13.3%.
• CaixaBank Research estimates an accumulated national housing deficit since 2021 of roughly 515,000 to 765,000 homes, including more than 164,000 in the Valencian Community.
• Analysts flag early signs of overvaluation, with Banco de España and the ECB estimating prices above long‑run equilibrium, though household and banking fundamentals are stronger than in the 2000s.
• Non‑resident buyers account for about 7.9% of transactions after a roughly 40% increase since 2019, and CaixaBank expects price growth to remain strong in 2025 before easing in 2026.